INDIANAPOLIS — There is a stalled warm front across the southern tier of the state this morning. This will allow for lots of quiet and dry hours, and temperatures recover into the mid-80s this afternoon.
As this boundary lifts northward later today, the threat of storms will increase on the south side of the front, impacting central and especially southern parts of Indiana. Storms have already started to fire up in the "warm sector" of this system closer to the Kansas City area.
What is today's severe set-up?
- TIMING: Mainly after 4 p.m. through 10 p.m. around the metro area and potentially as late as 3 a.m. for southeastern portions of the state.
- THREATS: All modes of severe weather are possible, but the primary threat will be damaging wind gusts, then heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding overnight. A few rotating storms across the far southern tier closer to the Ohio River Valley are possible.
- THREAT LEVEL: The Storm Prediction Center is watching the southern half of the state for the higher risk of severe storms (level 3 of 5), where the environment will be more conducive for storm development. The I-70 corridor. including the Indy metro. is under a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for more widely scattered severe storms.
We'll see a few lingering showers through early Thursday with sunshine returning in the afternoon. Moisture will then wrap around the back side of this area of low pressure, bringing another chance of stray showers in the evening.
How much cooler will it get behind these storms and cold front?
Temperatures will be more seasonal behind the front Thursday with highs in the low 70s. Much cooler air arrives Friday with morning lows in the mid-40s and highs only in the low 60s. Below-average temperatures continue to start the weekend with highs still in the mid-60s before recovering back to near 70 by Sunday.
Friday looks to be a mainly dry day with a mix of sun and clouds. A weak wave will track through the area Saturday, prompting a few stray showers, especially across northeastern parts of the state. We'll again see a good amount of dry time Sunday with a few showers or storms developing late.
