We're putting the finishing touches on what will be the warmest February on record for Indianapolis. Highs today climb into the 50s this afternoon and near record warm levels Tuesday to finish the month.
Some areas are seeing some bonus sunshine this hour...especially from Indy-northward. However clouds rule the sky the farther south you travel and where sprinkles and light showers continue.
But many areas remain dry today and this evening before rain and storms increase heading into Tuesday morning. Storms early Tuesday should be non-severe but all of Central Indiana is under a Slight Risk for severe storms.
The main timing if we do see severe weather appears to be mainly after 7pm Tuesday and before 8am Wednesday. We have confidence the area will have thunderstorms during that time with heavy rainfall and lightning.
What's uncertain at this time is what will be the dominant storm mode in Central Indiana or if any discrete supercells develop within a zone of high wind shear and potential instability. Some high resolution modeled set ups suggest if this happen this cells would have a chance to produce tornadoes.
But other solutions suggest a more linear storm mode which would be more of a wind set up and potential of embedded tornadoes within the line. Due to this uncertainty we have low confidence on a complex set up tomorrow night.
Future severe weather outlooks may include an upgrade in the severe weathe risk. Outcomes could range from just heavy storms to supercelluar tornadic storms in our viewing area. Stay weather aware during that time and please check back for updates.
Storms diminish by Wednesday afternoon as colder air returns. There remains a chance of some snow accumulation Thursday evening into Friday morning. Then we're back to a warmer set up heading into this weekend when highs get back to the 60s - Sean Ash