A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 5:00 am Wednesday for the following counties in northern Indiana:
Blackford, Cass, Grant, Huntington, Jay, Miami, Wabash, White
Despite the increase in low level moisture, the lack of a triggering mechanism was expected to keep central Indiana mainly dry through late evening.
Storms will initiate in Iowa/northern Illinois/Wisconsin later this evening and likely produce big hail. These storms should stay well north of the Indy metro, but may impact the northern fringe of the viewing area after midnight and prior to 7am… including Peru, Marion, Hartford City and Muncie.
The left over cloud cover will blanket sunshine early Wednesday morning at the track for Community Day. After a mostly dry start we’ll need to monitor storm development by early afternoon and the potential for severe weather as well.
Expect humid highs Wednesday in the lower to middle 80s. Cloud cover holds the keys to storm development and initiation. If current modeling verifies the southeastern corner of the state has the highest potential of hail and severe wind Wednesday. There is still much uncertainty on how tomorrow will unfold, so please be weather aware and realize it’s a highly changeable forecast… for better or worse.
This will be the biggest weather hurdle to clear prior to what still looks to be a beautiful race weekend. The firing line for rain/storms will settle south of the Ohio River and straddle or be west of the Mississippi River. This puts central Indiana in a pretty place for several days.
I’m not sure you can ask for a better Carb Day. Comfortably cool lows near 50 and highs right where they should be for late May in the mid-70s… with sandwiched in between!
So far no significant changes in model guidance since our initial Indy 500 forecast Sunday. We’re still expecting hazy sun to fill the sky and lows in the 50s with highs nearing 80 toward the end of the race.
Summer heat creeps into the Ohio Valley just in time for Memorial Day. Jet stream ridging should prevent any significant rain/storm development early next week and allow the heat to continue to build. Stay weather aware north and northeast tonight and everywhere tomorrow. Thanks and have a great evening – Sean Ash