Active weather week ahead for central Indiana - 13 WTHR Indianapolis

Active weather week ahead for central Indiana

Updated:
INDIANAPOLIS -

Buckle up Central Indiana for what promises to be an active stretch the next few weeks, that likely delivers multiple precipitation events to the region.  The image below shows the average configuration of the upper level flow across the northern hemisphere the next 8-10 days.

Please note much will change between now and the end of the week, and there is plenty of time to iron-out specifics.  This post is not to "hype" or "scare", but merely shed some light into what we're seeing behind the scenes… and the various outcomes with this set up.

Both the GFS and European models shows a persistent southwest to northeast flow during this time.  This will be an ample moisture supply that will travel over Arctic air at the surface… resulting in increased chances of snow/winter precip in the very near future.

500MB_ANOMALY record_rain

Preceding the temperature tumble later this week will be a surge to near 60+ on Wednesday.  The warmth and a front will trigger scattered showers and possible some gusty storms.

meteorogram

Notice the downward spiral in the temperature meteogram above for Indianapolis.  The peak on Wednesday is evident, as is the Arctic chill for the weekend.  The meteogram below is snowfall potential.

meteorogram_snow

Being 72+ hours away from a "potential" winter precip event is still too far out from trying to pinpoint amounts and location of heaviest snow/precip.  With much uncertainty regarding actual moisture, temperature profiles, and the likelihood of sleet and freezing rain complicating matters.  Both the Euro & GFS models show snow accumulation across Central/Southern Indiana by 7pm Friday.

THURSDAY_SETUP

You'll also notice the NAM and GFs showing sleet accumulation.  It's too be determined how quickly the Arctic air will fill the column overhead and switch all precip to snow.

RPM_5 RPM_6

For now, sleet and freezing rain are very much in play from Indy-southward.  We can also look at the past to help predict future events.  The image below shows the historical best match (analog) for the "modeled" conditions later this week… and it is an event from December 13-14, 1985.  No two events are the same, but this gives confidence Central Indiana will see some snow.  We won't have a good handle on amounts until Wednesday.

COOP

record_rain_2 Check back for updates.  For now, expect rain to change to a wintry mix late Thursday.  Mix changes to snow Thursday night and sleet/snow accumulation are likely Friday.

7dayBitter cold air follows the snow Friday and another snow-maker is in the forecast cards Sunday.  Told you to buckle up – Sean Ash

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