Thursday, December 12 2013 11:20 PM EST2013-12-13 04:20:57 GMT
The Avon Community School Corporation says it's investigating a case of "inappropriate social media activity" involving high school students. Bill Weems, deputy chief of Avon PD, says his department wasMore >>
The Avon Community School Corporation says it's investigating a case of "inappropriate social media activity" involving high school students.More >>
Thursday, December 12 2013 11:19 PM EST2013-12-13 04:19:07 GMT
Small businesses in Shelbyville are taking a big hit from overnight burglars. Over two months, burglars have hit nine businesses in town. There is no indication they are slowing down. "This is a hitMore >>
Small businesses in Shelbyville are taking a big hit from overnight burglars.More >>
Thursday, December 12 2013 10:48 PM EST2013-12-13 03:48:58 GMT
The House has given sweeping bipartisan approval to a budget bill backed by both President Barack Obama, his Democratic allies and a big majority of the chamber's Republicans. The 332-94 vote sendsMore >>
The House has given sweeping bipartisan approval to a budget bill backed by both President Barack Obama, his Democratic allies and a big majority of the chamber's Republicans.More >>
Thursday, December 12 2013 10:47 PM EST2013-12-13 03:47:20 GMT
A pedestrian was struck and killed in Franklin Thursday night. Franklin firefighters confirmed the accident on US 31 between Acorn Road and Schoolhouse Road. The crash happened just before 9 p.m. Thursday. TheMore >>
Franklin police are investigating the death of a pedestrian on US 31 Thursday night.More >>
Thursday, December 12 2013 10:33 PM EST2013-12-13 03:33:28 GMT
Police in Noblesville are warning citizens about scams surrounding the death of a 16-year-old high school student. Police say they have received several questions about fundraising efforts allegedly setMore >>
Police in Noblesville are warning citizens about scams surrounding the death of a 16-year-old high school student.More >>
Thursday, December 12 2013 8:43 PM EST2013-12-13 01:43:13 GMT
Someone has again anonymously dropped a gold Krugerrand coin into a Salvation Army red kettle in a central Indiana city. Salvation Army Capt. Dale Brandenburg says the South African coin was foundMore >>
Someone has again anonymously dropped a gold Krugerrand coin into a Salvation Army red kettle in a central Indiana city.More >>
Thursday, December 12 2013 8:40 PM EST2013-12-13 01:40:40 GMT
An Indianapolis man who pleaded guilty to bank robbery in which an accomplice was fatally shot by the FBI has been sentenced to 10.5 years in prison. U.S. District Judge Jane Magnus-Stinson sentencedMore >>
An Indianapolis man who pleaded guilty to bank robbery in which an accomplice was fatally shot by the FBI has been sentenced to 10.5 years in prison.More >>
Thursday, December 12 2013 8:33 PM EST2013-12-13 01:33:19 GMT
Bishops representing Indiana's five Roman Catholic dioceses have issued a pastoral letter in response to a proposal to add a ban on gay marriage to the state constitution, but didn't take a side. TheMore >>
Bishops representing Indiana's five Roman Catholic dioceses have issued a pastoral letter in response to a proposal to add a ban on gay marriage to the state constitution, but didn't take a side.More >>
Thursday, December 12 2013 7:23 PM EST2013-12-13 00:23:47 GMT
Indianapolis Metro Police are investigating the shooting of a child on the city's west side. Officers were called to a home in the 1100 block of W. 27th St. just east of Riverside Park. The child wasMore >>
Indianapolis Metro Police are investigating the shooting of a child on the city's west side.More >>
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SOURCE Garzarelli Capital, Inc.
Elaine Garzarelli advises investors on market impact - and lessons from previous shutdowns
NEW YORK, Oct. 2, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- As investors watch the super-charged budget battle in D.C., veteran market expert and economist Elaine Garzarelli advises that the shutdown will essentially be a "non-event" for the markets.
"This has happened so many times before that the shutdown will not have much of a bearing at all," says Dr. Garzarelli, who heads Garzarelli Capital, Inc., and has advised investors for 30 years using a mathematical approach to market timing and sector analysis. "Over the last 20 years there have been 12 government shutdowns ranging from one day to 28 days, with the average being 9 days. The market has fallen prior to previous shutdowns, but then rallied for months thereafter."
As creator of the proprietary "12 stock market indicator model," which has allowed her to predict not only market direction but which sectors would outperform the market, Dr. Garzarelli has been widely recognized for her correct predictions of all major market trends for 30 years. Her track record earned her first team in Quantitative Research in Institutional Investor magazine's All-Star poll for 11 years. She works closely with other economists each month to evaluate the fundamentals of the industries she covers – including, among others, health care, information technology, industrials, and financials.
Rate impact from "flight to safety" "Looking at the most recent shutdowns from 1995 and 2011, 10-year treasury yields fell 100 basis points from three months before the crisis to two months after," she explains. "So far, the yield is down 40 basis points from its September peak. We believe 35 basis points are due to the shutdown – the 'flight to safety' – and 5 basis points are due to the non-tapering by the Fed. The 10-year treasury yield may fall another 30 basis points in a flight to safety.
"Longer-term, these falling rates are good for housing, good for the stock market, and good for capital spending."
GDP and debt rating effect – minimal The effect on GDP growth will be minimal, she argues: "We see the government shutdown reducing real GDP growth by .1% to .2 % per week, and the reality is that no one is going to keep the government shut down for too long."
Additionally, she says that U.S. debt ratings will not change: "The current debt ceiling debate is unlikely to change the S&P's double A-plus rating on U.S. sovereign debt."
The 4 things that move stocks Looking at what really matters in stock performance, it's not the heated battle of the egos in Congress, she explains. Instead, it is a focus on the fundamentals.
The Garzarelli methodology incorporates multiple indicators, which fluctuate each year. "Everything from more international exposure to social media to money supply affects the state of play," she explains.
"But what is clear from research is that there are four key things that move stock prices up and down." These are:
Valuation – Is the market over- or undervalued based on interest rates and earnings?
Monetary policy – Whether the Fed is easing or tightening, and the shape of the yield curve.
Economic cycle – Economic momentum from industrial production and leading economic indicators.
Sentiment – Number of bullish and bearish advisors, which is a contrary indicator.
"Ultimately, the bull market remains intact, and corrections will be limited to 4% to 7%."
About Elaine Garzarelli Dr. Garzarelli is president of Garzarelli Capital, Inc. She was a partner and managing director at Lehman Brothers prior to starting her own company in 1995. She has been studying the stock market for over 30 years and was ranked first team in Quantitative Research in Institutional Investor magazine's All-Star poll for 11 years; she was also top ranked in Portfolio Strategy and Market Timing.
She initially developed her Sector Analysis methodology for predicting industry earnings and her 12 stock market indicator model while working as a corporate profit economist at a major brokerage firm. This methodology allowed her to predict the major trends in stock prices and the earnings of 80 S&P 500 industry groups.
Dr. Garzarelli currently uses this mathematical approach for stock market timing and industry selection in producing her Sector Analysis monthly report. She issues this report to institutions, primarily portfolio managers and security analysts. Her clients include domestic and international mutual and pension funds, and hedge funds.
She was featured as a top businessperson in Fortune magazine and was listed in Business Week's "What's In" list. She appears on television including Fox Business News, CNBC, and The Nightly Business Report on PBS. Elaine spends each month doing research by working with economists in the industries she covers and analyzing the economy. Her education is in economics and statistics at New York University, and she holds a doctorate from Drexel University. Dr. Garzarelli has a scholarship fund at Drexel University for female undergraduate students in the Bennett S. LeBow College of Business.
Thursday, December 12 2013 5:29 PM EST2013-12-12 22:29:58 GMT
A woman who pleaded guilty in the death of her seven-year-old son will learn her sentence this afternoon. Jessica Rogers, who was 29 when she was arrested after the Dec. 8, 2012 fatal fire, pleaded guiltyMore >>
A woman who pleaded guilty in the death of her seven-year-old son has been sentenced to four years in prison, to be followed by two years of probation.More >>
Thursday, December 12 2013 12:18 PM EST2013-12-12 17:18:18 GMT
The wife of an Iraqi war veteran shot to death when he tried to buy an iPad on Craigslist is speaking out for the first time. In an interview with the Daily Mail online, Jamie Vester says she warned herMore >>
The wife of an Iraqi war veteran shot to death when he tried to buy an iPad on Craigslist is speaking out for the first time.More >>
Wednesday, November 27 2013 6:21 PM EST2013-11-27 23:21:46 GMT
It's a case that has baffled police for decades. On November 17th, 2013, it will be 35 years since four young workers were kidnapped from the Speedway Burger Chef and killed. There were four victimsMore >>
It's one of the state's most heinous crimes. 35 years later, the Burger Chef murder case is still unsolved. Now, Eyewitness News has uncovered a new theory connected to the investigation that focuses on another Burger Chef restaurant.More >>
Thursday, December 12 2013 10:45 AM EST2013-12-12 15:45:38 GMT
A man that had been shot in his vehicle drove to the Indianapolis Fire station at 5520 East 38th Street around 11 PM last night. Indianapolis Metropolitan Police Department (IMPD) were at the shootingMore >>
A man who had been shot in his vehicle drove to the Indianapolis Fire station at 5520 East 38th Street around 11:00 pm Wednesday night. More >>
Wednesday, December 11 2013 6:28 PM EST2013-12-11 23:28:45 GMT
Chuck Pagano took no solace in what everybody else at the Colts' complex already knew. Sunday's replay reversal, which gave the Bengals a touchdown, was a mistake. On Tuesday night, Dean Blandino, theMore >>
Chuck Pagano took no solace in what everybody else at the Colts' complex already knew.More >>
Thursday, December 12 2013 2:38 AM EST2013-12-12 07:38:28 GMT
Indianapolis Fire Department was called to a house fire overnight at 2733 Fairfax Road, while dealing with slick streets and the cold. The fire was a chimney fire, but when the firefighters left the scene,More >>
Indianapolis Fire Department was called to a house fire overnight at 2733 Fairfax Road, while dealing with slick streets and the cold.More >>
Thursday, December 12 2013 7:33 AM EST2013-12-12 12:33:55 GMT
Customers of Indianapolis Power and Light (IPL) were without power overnight during the cold weather. The downtown Indianapolis area has 238 customers without power and another 42 on the south sideMore >>
Indianapolis Power and Light and Duke Energy customers without power overnight.More >>
Wednesday, December 11 2013 6:15 PM EST2013-12-11 23:15:22 GMT
An Indianapolis pastor has been convicted of child molestation. A jury found 71-year-old Otis Jetter guilty on all three counts Tuesday. Jetter had been working as a pastor at the Pilgrim Chapel MissionaryMore >>
A jury found 71-year-old Otis Jetter guilty on all three counts Tuesday.
Thursday, December 12 2013 11:23 AM EST2013-12-12 16:23:57 GMT
Indianapolis Power and Light blames the cold weather for scattered power outages Thursday morning. A power line in Pike Township that was previously struck by lightning froze this morning. It broke, causingMore >>
Indianapolis Power and Light blames the cold weather for scattered power outages Thursday morning.More >>
Wednesday, December 11 2013 11:42 PM EST2013-12-12 04:42:24 GMT
A few snow showers are in the forecast for Wednesday evening and a quick blast of even colder air will follow. Overnight temperatures will be in the range of 1 to -4 degrees. Wind chills will be evenMore >>
By late evening Wednesday, some parts of central Indiana have temperatures in the single digits and wind chills nearing 10 below zero.More >>