Update on severe storm potential
After a soggy start central Indiana is currently reaping the rewards of residual cloud cover. How long the overcast sticks around plays a vital role in how widespread, and severe, new storms will be later today. So far our best case scenario of lingering cloud cover is playing out so far… but there’s plenty of day left.
More clouds lead to less heat and less atmospheric instability. A brighter sky will add fuel to any storms that may develop. Storms have initiated in eastern Missouri where it’s been sunny much of the day. A warm front is very evident over Indiana, where temperatures are jumping into the 70's in southern Indiana… which is contrasted by cooler 40's north of the boundary.
We’ll need to monitor the track of any new storm storms in Illinois and any additional development along the warm front along the I-70 corridor. It’s very possible if enough heating occurs that storms may develop overhead this afternoon. Complicating the forecast even more is a quick-moving area of rain and thunder racing northeast along the Ohio River Valley. Rain and cloud cover from this feature may serve as a limiting factor for areas north of the warm front. But this feature may also strengthen as it encounters the warming air mass in southern Indiana. Much to monitor the next few hours for sure.
All modes of severe weather are in play, including tornadoes… though this is a completely different set up than what occurred last night in Arkansas and what’s taking shape in the Deep South today. The risk for tornadoes and damaging wind is low, with a moderate threat of hail in any storms that do develop.
Overnight storms will depart early Tuesday morning and we’ll again have to monitor late afternoon storm potential Tuesday for severe weather.
The arrival of cooler air Wednesday pushes severe storm potential south of the Ohio Valley, but keeps rain chances in play the rest of the work week. Expect unseasonably cool highs in the 50's Thursday and Friday before warmer returns the second half of the weekend. Have a safe afternoon.