Spring tease brings severe storm potential
Welcome to the warmest day of February and warmest day since mid-January. Sunshine gradually gave way to cloud cover and an approaching front tonight may trigger widely scattered rain showers, with the in short-term high-resolution models on the southeastern corner of the state.
A bigger concern for the overnight and early morning commute Wednesday will be areas of locally dense fog. Snow melt today and temperatures cooling into the upper 20s/lower 30s provide the set up for a shallow layer of fog/stratus… and this will take some time to "burn off" tomorrow. So the brightest part of the day will be the afternoon, and temps creep back into the mid-40s.
For several days we've mentioned the possibility of strong/severe storms, unfortunately there's no change to that thinking. We all really need to be weather aware Thursday. Dense fog will be a big problem to start the day.
Temps then surge into the upper 50s-lower 60s. A dynamic wind field teams up with a sharp cold front to bring an elevated risk of damaging wind to Central Indiana. Current timing appears to be late afternoon/evening and wind profiles/instability parameters suggest a low end tornado risk too… especially for the southern-third of the state.
Flooding may become the bigger story, with snow melt and heavy rain increasing the threat for all areas. It's shaping up to be a busy day. Check back for further updates regarding timing, level of confidence, and greatest severe parameters.
This taste of spring warmth will be quite a tease, as there's a high chance of unseasonably cold air returning next week… and possibly into March. We're certainly earning our spring fever this year. Have a great evening.