Spring tease brings severe storm potential

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Welcome to the warmest day of February and warmest day since mid-January.  Sunshine gradually gave way to cloud cover and an approaching front tonight may trigger widely scattered rain showers, with the in short-term high-resolution models on the southeastern corner of the state.


A bigger concern for the overnight and early morning commute Wednesday will be areas of locally dense fog.  Snow melt today and temperatures cooling into the upper 20s/lower 30s provide the set up for a shallow layer of fog/stratus… and this will take some time to "burn off" tomorrow.  So the brightest part of the day will be the afternoon, and temps creep back into the mid-40s.


For several days we've mentioned the possibility of strong/severe storms, unfortunately there's no change to that thinking.  We all really need to be weather aware Thursday.  Dense fog will be a big problem to start the day.


Temps then surge into the upper 50s-lower 60s.  A dynamic wind field teams up with a sharp cold front to bring an elevated risk of damaging wind to Central Indiana.  Current timing appears to be late afternoon/evening and wind profiles/instability parameters suggest a low end tornado risk too… especially for the southern-third of the state.


Flooding may become the bigger story, with snow melt and heavy rain increasing the threat for all areas.  It's shaping up to be a busy day.  Check back for further updates regarding timing, level of confidence, and greatest severe parameters.


This taste of spring warmth will be quite a tease, as there's a high chance of unseasonably cold air returning next week… and possibly into March.  We're certainly earning our spring fever this year.  Have a great evening.